每日社评：0517 俄烏戰爭和平在望?

俄烏戰爭和平在望?

截至2025年5月16日，俄乌战争虽出现和平谈判的迹象，但真正实现和平仍面临诸多挑战。

5月15日，俄乌双方在伊斯坦布尔举行了自2022年以来的首次直接会谈。乌克兰方面强调实现全面、可验证的停火，并提出包括释放战俘、归还被强行带走的儿童等人道主义措施。俄罗斯则要求乌克兰承认其对顿涅茨克、卢甘斯克、赫尔松和扎波罗热四个地区的控制权。尽管双方在关键问题上仍存重大分歧，但达成了各自释放1000名战俘的协议，这是迄今为止规模最大的一次交换。

乌克兰：坚持要求俄罗斯全面撤军，恢复2014年前的边界，并寻求国际安全保障。乌方拒绝在领土问题上做出让步，强调必须先实现无条件停火。

• 俄罗斯：强调乌克兰应保持中立地位，拒绝其加入北约，并要求乌克兰承认俄罗斯对部分乌东地区的控制。俄罗斯还提出以2022年的“伊斯坦布尔公报”草案作为谈判基础。

• 美国与欧洲：美国总统特朗普推动乌克兰接受30天无条件停火，但未能取得实质进展。欧洲国家则主张在乌克兰参与下进行全面和平谈判，并对俄罗斯提出新的制裁威胁。

中国和巴西联合呼吁俄乌双方尽快开启直接对话，强调通过政治手段解决危机的重要性。

虽然近期的会谈显示出和平的可能性，但双方在关键问题上的立场差异仍然显著。乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示希望在2025年结束冲突，但强调和平必须通过实力和外交努力共同实现。

总的来说，尽管和平的希望正在显现，但实现持久和平仍需各方在关键问题上做出实质性让步，并通过持续的外交努力推动谈判进程。

Is Peace Finally On The Horizon In The Russia–Ukraine War?

As of May 16, there are signs that peace talks may be gaining momentum, though many challenges remain before true peace can be achieved. On May 15, Russia and Ukraine held their first direct negotiations since 2022 when they met in Istanbul. The very fact that the two sides returned to the table after years of conflict is, in itself, a fragile but meaningful step toward hope.

Ukraine has insisted on a full Russian withdrawal, a return to its pre-2014 borders, and international security guarantees. It also called for humanitarian measures including the release of prisoners of war and the return of children who were forcibly taken. Russia, meanwhile, demanded recognition of its control over Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, and reiterated that Ukraine must remain neutral and outside NATO. Russia also proposed using the draft from the 2022 “Istanbul Communiqué” as the foundation for negotiations.

Despite the gulf between their positions, both parties agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners each—the largest such exchange since the war began. Could this signal a quiet understanding beginning to take shape?

The United States, under President Trump, has pushed for Ukraine to accept a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, though progress has been limited. European nations, on the other hand, advocate for comprehensive peace talks involving Ukraine and are considering further sanctions against Russia. Meanwhile, China and Brazil have jointly called for direct dialogue and stressed the importance of resolving the crisis through political means.

While these talks hint at a possible turning point, the fundamental differences between the two sides remain stark. President Zelensky has expressed a desire to see the conflict end in 2025, but emphasizes that peace must be achieved through strength and sustained diplomacy.