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參議院通過川普預算案:稅改延續與赤字風險並存


參議院通過川普預算案:稅改延續與赤字風險並存
參議院通過川普預算案:稅改延續與赤字風險並存

美國時間7月1日,參議院以51票對50票的極微弱差距,通過了前總統川普提出的《大而美預算案》(Big Beautiful Bill)。這項法案涵蓋大規模的稅收減免延續與政府支出重整,被視為川普在重返白宮後推行其經濟主張的第一個重大立法勝利。

此案的通過,標誌著川普試圖延續2017年《減稅與就業法案》中關鍵條款的努力獲得重大突破,也宣示其將藉由「減稅強國、削支制衡」的策略,重新塑造聯邦財政與社會福利體系。

黨派僵局 一票決勝

在經歷一整晚的激烈辯論與修正案表決後,參議院陷入50比50的僵局,最終由副總統JD·范斯(JD Vance)投下關鍵一票打破平衡,使共和黨得以推進川普的預算藍圖。法案內容涵蓋延續企業與個人稅收優惠、增加邊境安全支出、縮減環保與社會福利項目資金等,受到民主黨全面反對,亦引發部分中間派共和黨人疑慮。

儘管包括蘇珊·柯林斯(Susan Collins)與蘭德·保羅(Rand Paul)在內的共和黨參議員表態反對,但最終阿拉斯加州參議員莉莎·穆考斯基(Lisa Murkowski)在爭取州內援助條款後投下贊成票,成為推動法案通過的關鍵。


法案核心:減稅延續與支出重構

此次法案重點包括:
• 延續2017年減稅條款:原先預計於2025年底失效的稅收優惠,將持續實施,並擴大中產與小企業稅賦減免。
• 社會支出削減:對Medicaid(醫療補助)與SNAP(糧食券)等福利計畫設立更高申請門檻與資格限制。
• 軍事與邊境安全加碼:為國防預算與美墨邊境防衛投入數百億美元資金。
• 清潔能源與AI監管經費縮水:針對綠能與高科技監管計畫的撥款遭大幅削減。

根據國會預算辦公室預測,該法案在未來十年間將使聯邦赤字增加逾3.3兆美元,引發財政保守派的警告與財經界的關注。

川普意圖:在政治與經濟上雙贏

川普總統對參議院的通過表示高度讚賞,並希望眾議院能在7月4日美國獨立日前完成最終表決,讓他得以簽署成法。他強調,「這將是對美國工薪階層、家庭和企業的重大勝利」,並宣稱該法案是「振興經濟、捍衛國境、打擊官僚」的關鍵一步。

然而,民主黨則猛烈批評此案將進一步擴大貧富差距,削弱聯邦政府對弱勢族群的保障,並對環境與創新領域造成長遠損害。

眾議院挑戰仍在 立法命運未定

目前法案已送回眾議院,須就參議院版本進行復議。儘管共和黨掌控眾院,但黨內對於社會支出刪減仍存歧見,川普政府是否能順利推動最終表決,仍是未知數。

倘若眾議院表決順利,川普將可在國慶日前簽署生效,使該法案成為其回鍋總統任期的第一項重大立法。反之,若出現修改與拖延,法案內容恐須進一步協商調整。


結語:預算案為川普政治路鋪路,亦掀起財政風暴

《大而美預算案》的通過,不僅是川普財政理念的體現,也代表美國即將步入一場減稅與擴支並行的實驗時期。未來,它將如何影響國家財政、選民態度及川普本人的政治命運,仍有待觀察。可以確定的是,美國的政治風雲,遠未止息。


Senate Passes Trump's Budget Plan: Tax Cuts Extended, Fiscal Storm Ahead

[Staff Report] — On July 1, 2025, the U.S. Senate narrowly passed President Donald Trump’s sweeping budget plan, known as the “Big Beautiful Bill”, by a razor-thin margin of 51–50. The bill, which includes extensive tax cut extensions and a major restructuring of federal spending, marks Trump’s first major legislative victory since returning to the White House.

The legislation not only aims to solidify key elements of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, but also proposes deep reforms in entitlement programs, border security funding, and federal agency budgets—reflecting Trump’s vision of “cutting taxes, curbing bureaucracy, and securing America.”



A Divided Senate, One Final Deciding Vote

After an all-night “vote-a-rama” session, the Senate vote was deadlocked at 50–50. Vice President JD Vance cast the tie-breaking vote, pushing the legislation over the finish line. The bill faced unwavering unanimous opposition from Democrats and resistance from several moderate Republicans concerned about cuts to social safety nets and ballooning deficits.

Senators Susan Collins (R-ME), Rand Paul (R-KY), and Thom Tillis (R-NC) voted against the bill, citing fiscal concerns. However, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), after securing additional aid provisions for her state, ultimately voted in favor, tipping the scale in the GOP’s favor.



Key Provisions: Tax Cuts and Spending Shifts

The bill’s major components include:
• Permanent extension of Trump-era tax cuts, especially for businesses and high-income earners.
• Tighter eligibility and reduced funding for Medicaid and SNAP (food assistance) programs.
• Increased military and border security funding, allocating billions for defense and immigration enforcement.
• Sharp cuts to clean energy and AI regulatory programs, signaling a shift away from climate and tech governance priorities.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the bill is projected to add more than $3.3 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade, raising alarms among budget hawks and wary economists.



Trump’s Vision: Political and Economic Win

President Trump hailed the Senate’s passage as a “historic victory” for American workers, families, and businesses. In a statement from the White House, he emphasized that the bill, “puts America first again—cutting taxes, defending borders, and draining the swamp.”

The administration is now urging the House of Representatives to approve the bill by July 4th, allowing Trump to sign it into law on Independence Day—a symbolic triumph for his second-term agenda.

Democrats, meanwhile, have denounced the legislation as “cruel, reckless, and regressive,” warning it will worsen inequality, hurt the environment, and dismantle essential safety net programs.



What’s Next: House Vote and Political Uncertainty

The bill now heads back to the House, where it faces internal GOP divisions and unified Democratic opposition. While Republicans hold the majority, disagreements over the depth of social cuts and deficit implications could complicate the final passage.

If the House approves the Senate version, President Trump will secure a major legislative milestone early in his new term. If not, the legislation may return to the negotiating table, risking delays or significant revisions.



Conclusion: Trump’s Budget Victory or a Major Fiscal Gamble?

The passage of the “Big Beautiful Bill” signals a bold, polarizing shift in federal fiscal policy. For Trump, it offers a chance to cement his legacy as a tax-cutting reformer. For critics, it opens the door to a new era of fiscal instability and social disinvestment. One thing is certain: the battle over America’s budget priorities is far from over.