中東：伊朗戰爭陰影逼近

中東局勢正被推向危險邊緣。伊朗國內因經濟與政治不滿引發的抗議持續延燒，官方強力鎮壓之際，外界也觀察到近乎全面的網路封鎖；有報導指出，封網自 1/8 起使一般連線大幅降至極低水平，民間改以衛星網路勉強維持對外訊息。

同一時間，外部壓力急速升溫。白宮公開表示不排除對伊朗動用軍事力量；美方也宣布對「與伊朗做生意的國家」加徵 25% 關稅，把衝突從政治與安全延伸到經濟戰線。 以色列方面亦傳出進入高度警戒，關注美國是否介入所引發的連鎖反應。

戰爭往往不是從宣戰開始，而是從誤判開始。當街頭對立加深、溝通管道收縮、威懾訊號不斷疊加，「一觸即發」就不再只是形容——而是整個區域必須共同避免的最壞結局。

Middle East: The Risk of an Iran War Is Rising Fast

Tensions around Iran are climbing toward a dangerous tipping point—not because anyone has formally chosen war, but because politics, protests, and military signaling are colliding at the same time.

Inside Iran, nationwide unrest has intensified after a sharp economic shock, with reports of a widening crackdown and mass arrests. Information has become harder to verify as Iran has imposed sweeping communications restrictions and internet blackouts, increasing fear and the odds of rumor-driven escalation. 

Outside Iran, Washington is raising the temperature. The White House has publicly signaled it is willing to consider military options, while President Donald Trump announced a new pressure move: a 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran.  Iran’s leadership, meanwhile, says it is “prepared for war” but also open to negotiations—language that can sound like deterrence at home yet read as provocation abroad. 

This is how wars become “one spark away”: a blackout that blinds the world, a crackdown that hardens anger, and external threats that narrow diplomatic exits. If backchannels fail and either side misreads the other’s next move, the region could slide from crisis into open conflict.