社評 0408 經濟前景難予預測

經濟前景難予預測

雖然一般認為美國經濟之衰退即將到來 ，但是在勞工部之報告中三月份仍然增加了二十三萬六千個工作機會，全美失業率從百分之三點六降到百分之三點五。

這是疫情之後最弱的就業增加之月份， 對專家們而言未來經濟之走向如何預測是非常困難之事。

這是五十年來全國失業率最低之時刻， 而通貨膨脹在今年二月降至百分之六， 去年夏天曾經高達百分之九點一， 而三月份指數尚未發表。

就表面而言， 目前世界經濟正面對一陣寒流， 主要是俄烏戰事未停， 歐洲各國經濟一籌莫展， 沙地也在減產石油， 美中兩國關係正在惡化 ，許多國家已經不再信仰全球化相互依存之關係 。

我們相信以美國之大資源之豐盛， 將會繼續在經濟軍事上之優勢， 但是， 如果無法撐握本身之經濟發展， 將會失去許多貿易伙伴。

美國之借債上限已經非常接近 ，如果兩黨無法達成共識繼續增加負債额度， 屆時將會製成經濟上之大震動， 嚴重影響國家聲譽， 後果不堪設想。

The Future Of Our Economy Is Unpredictable 

Although it is generally believed   that an economic recession in the United States is coming, a report from the U.S. Department Of Labor still shows a jobs increase of 236,000 in March.

The unemployment rate in the United States has dropped from 3.6% to 3.5%. This is the weakest month of employment growth after the epidemic. It is very difficult for experts to predict the future direction of the economy. This is also the lowest unemployment rate in the country over the last fifty years. Last summer the rate was as high as 9.1% and the March index has not yet been released.

The world economy is facing its biggest challenge because of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. European economies are also in serious difficulty. Saudi Arabia also has now reduced the production of oil and the relationship between the U.S and China is deteriorating. Many countries no longer believe in globalization. 

If our two parties in the U.S. can’t reach a consensus and continue      to increase the debt ceiling soon,  our country will be faced with very serious economic consequences.