中美貿易額在銳減中

在全球經濟風雲再起的2025年，中美兩國的貿易額正以肉眼可見的速度下滑。根據中國海關總署最新數據，今年前九個月中美雙邊貿易總額約為四千二百五十八億美元，同比下降超過十五個百分點；其中中國對美出口下降近十七個百分點，進口則下降十一個百分點。這一降幅，既是數據的波動，更是全球格局重組的映照。

五十五年前，當中美打開接觸之門，貿易往來被視為橋樑；而今，這座橋正被關稅、政治與供應鏈轉移的浪潮所侵蝕。從美國方面看，拜登政府延續對華關稅政策，甚至在關鍵產業上加碼制限；從中國角度，出口管制與內需壓力並存，企業正被迫在成本與市場之間重新尋找平衡。

這不只是統計數字的冷漠起伏，而是全球供應鏈的重新編碼。越南、墨西哥、印度等新興經濟體成為替代產能的承接者，“中國＋1”策略正在成為跨國企業的常態選項。從洛杉磯的港口到深圳的碼頭，貨櫃船上的貨物正在改變方向，新的商業地圖正被重繪。

然而，中美貿易額的銳減，也暴露出雙方經濟體內部的隱憂。對中國而言，出口仍是經濟成長的重要支撐，一旦外需萎縮，轉型壓力倍增；對美國而言，通貨膨脹陰影未散，失去穩定的供應來源，最終仍將回到消費者的物價之上。全球化的退潮，最終讓每個國家的海岸線都更加孤單。

值得警惕的是，這場貿易的寒冬可能不止於經濟層面。當雙方在科技、能源、地緣政治上持續拉開距離，經貿往來的減少，意味著互信的流失，也削弱了溝通的橋樑。歷史證明，貿易從來不是單純的商品交換，更是文明間的對話與妥協。

未來的局勢仍未定型。若政治理性重歸，經濟現實或許能迫使雙方重新坐上談判桌；若對抗邏輯持續擴大，全球市場恐將被更深的裂縫撕裂。貿易額的曲線，不只是統計報表上的波動，而是一面時代的鏡子，映照出世界秩序的重組與人心的距離。

U.S.–China Trade Volume In Sharp Decline

In the shifting tides of the global economy in 2025, trade between the United States and China is falling at a visible and alarming pace. According to recent data from China’s General Administration of Customs, total bilateral trade during the first nine months of this year reached $425.8 billion, a year-on-year drop of more than 15 percent. China’s exports to the U.S. fell by nearly 17 percent, while imports from the U.S. declined by 11 percent. These are not mere fluctuations in numbers—they are signs of a fundamental realignment in the world’s economic landscape.

Half a century ago, when the doors between China and the United States first opened, trade was hailed as a bridge of connection and mutual benefit. Today, that bridge is being eroded by waves of tariffs, political tension, and supply-chain realignments. On the American side, the Biden administration has maintained, and in some cases expanded, tariffs and restrictions on key industries. On the Chinese side, export controls, weakening external demand, and domestic economic pressure have forced businesses to rethink their global strategies and balance sheets.

This is not just a story of economic data—it is the rewriting of the global supply chain. Emerging economies such as Vietnam, Mexico, and India are becoming new hubs of production. The “China + 1” strategy is now the prevailing reality for many multinational corporations seeking to diversify risk. From the ports of Los Angeles to the docks of Shenzhen, the direction of global cargo is shifting, redrawing the map of international trade.

Yet this steep decline in trade reveals vulnerabilities within both economies. For China, exports remain a key pillar of growth, and shrinking demand intensifies the urgency of structural transformation. For the United States, persistent inflation and reduced access to affordable goods could ultimately burden consumers. As globalization ebbs, every coastline becomes more isolated, and the interdependence that once defined prosperity now gives way to fragmentation.

More concerning still, this economic chill may deepen political divides. As both nations drift further apart on issues of technology, energy, and geopolitics, reduced trade also weakens the foundation of trust and dialogue. History reminds us that trade has never been merely an exchange of goods—it has been an exchange of understanding, compromise, and peace.

The path ahead remains uncertain. If reason prevails, economic realities may eventually bring both sides back to the negotiating table. But if confrontation continues to harden into habit, the global marketplace will face deeper fractures. The curve of trade volume is not just a graph on a report—it is a mirror of our time, reflecting the reordering of the world and the growing distance between nations.