中美贸易额在锐减中

在全球经济风云再起的2025年，中美两国的贸易额正以肉眼可见的速度下滑。根据中国海关总署最新数据，今年前九个月中美双边贸易总额约為四千二百五十八亿美元，同比下降超过十五个百分点；其中中国对美出口下降近十七个百分点，进口则下降十一个百分点。这一降幅，既是数据的波动，更是全球格局重组的映照。

五十五年前，当中美打开接触之门，贸易往来被视為桥樑；而今，这座桥正被关税、政治与供应链转移的浪潮所侵蚀。从美国方面看，拜登政府延续对华关税政策，甚至在关键產业上加码制限；从中国角度，出口管制与内需压力并存，企业正被迫在成本与市场之间重新寻找平衡。

这不只是统计数字的冷漠起伏，而是全球供应链的重新编码。越南、墨西哥、印度等新兴经济体成為替代產能的承接者，“中国＋1”策略正在成為跨国企业的常态选项。从洛杉磯的港口到深圳的码头，货柜船上的货物正在改变方向，新的商业地图正被重绘。

然而，中美贸易额的锐减，也暴露出双方经济体内部的隐忧。对中国而言，出口仍是经济成长的重要支撑，一旦外需萎缩，转型压力倍增；对美国而言，通货膨胀阴影未散，失去稳定的供应来源，最终仍将回到消费者的物价之上。全球化的退潮，最终让每个国家的海岸线都更加孤单。

值得警惕的是，这场贸易的寒冬可能不止於经济层面。当双方在科技、能源、地缘政治上持续拉开距离，经贸往来的减少，意味着互信的流失，也削弱了沟通的桥樑。歷史证明，贸易从来不是单纯的商品交换，更是文明间的对话与妥协。

未来的局势仍未定型。若政治理性重归，经济现实或许能迫使双方重新坐上谈判桌；若对抗逻辑持续扩大，全球市场恐将被更深的裂缝撕裂。贸易额的曲线，不只是统计报表上的波动，而是一面时代的镜子，映照出世界秩序的重组与人心的距离。

U.S.–China Trade Volume In Sharp Decline

In the shifting tides of the global economy in 2025, trade between the United States and China is falling at a visible and alarming pace. According to recent data from China’s General Administration of Customs, total bilateral trade during the first nine months of this year reached $425.8 billion, a year-on-year drop of more than 15 percent. China’s exports to the U.S. fell by nearly 17 percent, while imports from the U.S. declined by 11 percent. These are not mere fluctuations in numbers—they are signs of a fundamental realignment in the world’s economic landscape.

Half a century ago, when the doors between China and the United States first opened, trade was hailed as a bridge of connection and mutual benefit. Today, that bridge is being eroded by waves of tariffs, political tension, and supply-chain realignments. On the American side, the Biden administration has maintained, and in some cases expanded, tariffs and restrictions on key industries. On the Chinese side, export controls, weakening external demand, and domestic economic pressure have forced businesses to rethink their global strategies and balance sheets.

This is not just a story of economic data—it is the rewriting of the global supply chain. Emerging economies such as Vietnam, Mexico, and India are becoming new hubs of production. The “China + 1” strategy is now the prevailing reality for many multinational corporations seeking to diversify risk. From the ports of Los Angeles to the docks of Shenzhen, the direction of global cargo is shifting, redrawing the map of international trade.

Yet this steep decline in trade reveals vulnerabilities within both economies. For China, exports remain a key pillar of growth, and shrinking demand intensifies the urgency of structural transformation. For the United States, persistent inflation and reduced access to affordable goods could ultimately burden consumers. As globalization ebbs, every coastline becomes more isolated, and the interdependence that once defined prosperity now gives way to fragmentation.

More concerning still, this economic chill may deepen political divides. As both nations drift further apart on issues of technology, energy, and geopolitics, reduced trade also weakens the foundation of trust and dialogue. History reminds us that trade has never been merely an exchange of goods—it has been an exchange of understanding, compromise, and peace.

The path ahead remains uncertain. If reason prevails, economic realities may eventually bring both sides back to the negotiating table. But if confrontation continues to harden into habit, the global marketplace will face deeper fractures. The curve of trade volume is not just a graph on a report—it is a mirror of our time, reflecting the reordering of the world and the growing distance between nations.