大俠行天下日記 我見我聞我思 0520

美國経濟硬着陸?

隨著美聯儲在三月和五月加息五十個基點 是二OOO年來美國最大之動作 ，経濟學家認為這個不得己之作法背後存在著不小的風險。

美聯儲只要向市塲拋售國債就可以回收美元， 當市塲上流動的美元減少時， 美元融資之成本自然上升，如此就實現了加息， 同時流入股市之資金也會减少 ，股市也相繼下跌， 最近道瓊指數連續七周下跌，纳斯達克至今也下跌了百分之二十。

專家們預測，未來十二個月美國経濟衰退的可能性是百分之二十七， 而三月份時預測只有百分之五， 美聯儲主席鮑威爾警告， 隨著利率提高來抑制通膨， 也不能保證經濟之軟着陸。

對許多買房的人群而言， 利率不斷上升帶來直接之痛感， 五月份以來平均房貸利率是百分之五點二七， 但短短一年前只有百分之二點六五。

一些新興市塲 ，由于美元指數走強貨幣貶值有巨大之風險 ，人民幣對美元匯率在短短二十天內從六點三跌至六點八。

在能源期貨價格不斷上漲， 六月份每桶一百零九點七七元， 七月份是一百一十二點三九元 ，本週稍早 ，歐盟決定逐步停止進口俄羅斯能源這將使能源國際價格高居不下。

總之， 世界局勢及俄鳥戰爭未結束， 貨櫃價格高昂 ，中美關稅未解， 美國繼續支持芬蘭加入北約， 同時實施驅趕雙方外交官員， 全球可能面臨之糧食危機 ，皆是對全世界各國之挑戰。

Economic Hard Landing?

With the Federal Reserve raising the interest rate by 50 basis points again, it is the biggest move in the country in the past twenty years. A lot of economists believe that there are many risks with an economic hard landing.

As long as the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department sell bonds in the market, it can mean the floating dollars will have less value in the market. The cost of dollar financing naturally rises, so the interest rate will go up. At the same time, the funds in the stock market will decrease. Recently, the Dow Jones index has fallen for seven consecutive weeks.

Experts predict that the possibility of an economic recession in the United States in the next twelve months is 27%, while in March, it was only at 5%. Chairman Powell warned that as interest rates rise to curb inflation, there is no guarantee that there will be a soft landing of the economy.

For those people who want to buy a new house, the rising interest rate brings a direct pain. Since May, the average market interest rate has been 5.27% , but it was only 2.65% a year ago.

The price of energy futures continues to rise. For June, oil is at $107 per barrel. And in July it will be at $112.37 per barrel. The exchange rate between the U.S. dollar to the Chinese RMB has gone from 6.3 to 6.8 in just 20 days.

The Russia Ukraine war is still not over. The tariffs between China and the U.S. have not been solved. Finland and Sweden will likely join NATO and the relations between them are deteriorating. Later in the summer a food shortage will create a world crisis.

All these factors really are not good signs for our economy.

President Biden is now in South Korea and will try to unite more countries. The U.S China relation will continue and still has many challenges in the near future.