大侠行天下日记 我见我闻我思 0520

美国経济硬着陆?

随着美联储在三月和五月加息五十个基点 是二OOO年来美国最大之动作 ，経济学家认為这个不得己之作法背后存在着不小的风险。

美联储只要向市塲拋售国债就可以回收美元， 当市塲上流动的美元减少时， 美元融资之成本自然上升，如此就实现了加息， 同时流入股市之资金也会减少 ，股市也相继下跌， 最近道琼指数连续七周下跌，纳斯达克至今也下跌了百分之二十。

专家们预测，未来十二个月美国経济衰退的可能性是百分之二十七， 而三月份时预测只有百分之五， 美联储主席鲍威尔警告， 随着利率提高来抑制通膨， 也不能保证经济之软着陆。

对许多买房的人群而言， 利率不断上升带来直接之痛感， 五月份以来平均房贷利率是百分之五点二七， 但短短一年前只有百分之二点六五。

一些新兴市塲 ，由于美元指数走强货币贬值有巨大之风险 ，人民币对美元匯率在短短二十天内从六点三跌至六点八。

在能源期货价格不断上涨， 六月份每桶一百零九点七七元， 七月份是一百一十二点三九元 ，本週稍早 ，欧盟决定逐步停止进口俄罗斯能源这将使能源国际价格高居不下。

总之， 世界局势及俄鸟战争未结束， 货柜价格高昂 ，中美关税未解， 美国继续支持芬兰加入北约， 同时实施驱赶双方外交官员， 全球可能面临之粮食危机 ，皆是对全世界各国之挑战。

Economic Hard Landing?

With the Federal Reserve raising the interest rate by 50 basis points again, it is the biggest move in the country in the past twenty years. A lot of economists believe that there are many risks with an economic hard landing.

As long as the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department sell bonds in the market, it can mean the floating dollars will have less value in the market. The cost of dollar financing naturally rises, so the interest rate will go up. At the same time, the funds in the stock market will decrease. Recently, the Dow Jones index has fallen for seven consecutive weeks.

Experts predict that the possibility of an economic recession in the United States in the next twelve months is 27%, while in March, it was only at 5%. Chairman Powell warned that as interest rates rise to curb inflation, there is no guarantee that there will be a soft landing of the economy.

For those people who want to buy a new house, the rising interest rate brings a direct pain. Since May, the average market interest rate has been 5.27% , but it was only 2.65% a year ago.

The price of energy futures continues to rise. For June, oil is at $107 per barrel. And in July it will be at $112.37 per barrel. The exchange rate between the U.S. dollar to the Chinese RMB has gone from 6.3 to 6.8 in just 20 days.

The Russia Ukraine war is still not over. The tariffs between China and the U.S. have not been solved. Finland and Sweden will likely join NATO and the relations between them are deteriorating. Later in the summer a food shortage will create a world crisis.

All these factors really are not good signs for our economy.

President Biden is now in South Korea and will try to unite more countries. The U.S China relation will continue and still has many challenges in the near future.