社評0413 通膨在下降之中

通膨在下降之中

根據勞工部最新數字顯示 ，三月份之物價指數從二月份的百分之六下降到百分之五 ，通貨膨脹指數從去年六月份之百分九下降至百分之五， 但是距離中央銀行期盼的百分之二尚有許多距離。

過去一年中，食物價格漲了百分之八點三， 是十二月中漲幅最高。 雖然通貨膨脹下降 ，但是對我們的荷包仍然未能減輕負擔， 投資們預測， 聯邦銀行仍會在五月三日之會議中再升息百分之零點二五。

分析家們認為 二0二三已經增加了一百萬個工作機會， 一直使經濟之熱度增加， 就業率極高，因此物價也一直居高不下。

我們認為 ，目前高利率之貸款已經嚴重影晌到各行業尤其是房地產市塲， 許多購房者已經在觀望，希望利率能夠下降。

老實說， 如果世界和平仍然遙遠， 貿易無法順暢， 全球化在衰退之中 ，各國之經濟增長必然會衰退。 

一般認為通貨膨脹仍然會緩慢下降， 但是距離降息之時間可能還很長。

Inflation Has Cooled Down 

According to recent statistics   

from the U.S. Labor Department, consumer prices declined to 5% in March, down from 6% in February. 

This represents a ninth-straight month of easing price growth on an annual basis and is down from the high of 9% last June, but still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

As a result, cooling inflation still continues to pinch our pocketbooks. A majority of investors still believe the Fed will raise the rate by 0.25% again. 

We are still being fanned by a continuing hot job market which has added one million positions in 2023.

The current high interest rate has really created a big impact on many businesses, especially in real estate. Many people just can’t buy a house with such a high interest rate for their loans.

Things are still just too tough for many low income families and small businesses. We need to understand that the high cost of rent and  materials will reduce profits for some companies and many of them are simply choosing to close down their businesses.

We all hope things will be getting better in the near future.