社评 0611 全球经济前景严峻

全球经济前景严峻

世界银行在一项最新的报告中有一项非常严峻的警告， 由于俄乌战事仍在持续， 全球供应链受阻 ，物价能源飞涨 ，中国对新冠疫情之相关封锁这一连冲击，将使今后全球经济之衰退难予避免。

在这项预测报告中指出， 除了诸如沙乌地等出產石油之国家， 因油价高涨带来暴利之外 ，其他诸如美国及欧洲国家之経济增长率将放缓至百分之二点五，而中国大陆将从二O二一年之百分之八点一降至百分之四点三， 对於其他贫穷国家而言， 情况会更糟 ，尤其是利率上升加上债务负担加重 ，前程十分艰难是预料之中。

我们不愿看到就如一九七 o年代当不断上涨之油价，加上高利率而使経済呈现瘫痪将会引发许多国家之金融危机。

拜登总统即将出访沙鸟地及中东 ，主要在寻找对石油危机之解决方案 ，今天在美国国内平均油价已经突破五元美金 ，通物膨胀率已高达百分之八点六， 虽然失业率低於百分之三点五，但是有百分之七十五的美国人已经受不了， 如果这种情况无法改变 ，中期选举将拱手送给共和党了。

我们奉劝拜登总统必须要把多半之注意力放在内政上， 首先要解决民生油价问题必须安内才可攘外 ，否则政权将无法保住了。

A Recession Will Be Hard To Avoid

A recent World Bank report has warned that the war in Ukraine, a broken worldwide supply chain, the lockdown in China along with skyrocketing food and fuel prices will create huge problems for many countries and a recession will be hard to avoid.

The World Bank also said that the world’s growth is expected to slow to 2.9 percent this year from 5.7 percent in 2021, with the exception of countries like Saudi Arabia which has benefited from higher oil prices. But there are barely any areas that have bright spots, especially China where their growth rate has dropped from 8.1 percent to 4.3 percent.

We don’t want to see a case of higher interest rates and rising oil prices like what  happened in the 1970’s. This would surely trigger a financial crisis in the world.

President Biden is planning to visit Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries mainly to look for additional oil supplies and a solution to the oil crisis. Today the average fuel price at the pump is over $5 per gallon. The inflation rate has now reached 8.6 percent. Although the unemployment rate is less than 3.5 percent, still 75 percent of Americans just can’t hold it together anymore.

We want to urge President Biden to focus most of his attention on the country’s internal affairs to solve the livelihood problems of our people.