社评 0408 经济前景难予预测

经济前景难予预测

虽然一般认為美国经济之衰退即将到来 ，但是在劳工部之报告中三月份仍然增加了二十三万六千个工作机会，全美失业率从百分之三点六降到百分之三点五。

这是疫情之后最弱的就业增加之月份， 对专家们而言未来经济之走向如何预测是非常困难之事。

这是五十年来全国失业率最低之时刻， 而通货膨胀在今年二月降至百分之六， 去年夏天曾经高达百分之九点一， 而三月份指数尚未发表。

就表面而言， 目前世界经济正面对一阵寒流， 主要是俄乌战事未停， 欧洲各国经济一筹莫展， 沙地也在减產石油， 美中两国关係正在恶化 ，许多国家已经不再信仰全球化相互依存之关係 。

我们相信以美国之大资源之丰盛， 将会继续在经济军事上之优势， 但是， 如果无法撑握本身之经济发展， 将会失去许多贸易伙伴。

美国之借债上限已经非常接近 ，如果两党无法达成共识继续增加负债额度， 届时将会製成经济上之大震动， 严重影响国家声誉， 后果不堪设想。

The Future Of Our Economy Is Unpredictable 

Although it is generally believed   that an economic recession in the United States is coming, a report from the U.S. Department Of Labor still shows a jobs increase of 236,000 in March.

The unemployment rate in the United States has dropped from 3.6% to 3.5%. This is the weakest month of employment growth after the epidemic. It is very difficult for experts to predict the future direction of the economy. This is also the lowest unemployment rate in the country over the last fifty years. Last summer the rate was as high as 9.1% and the March index has not yet been released.

The world economy is facing its biggest challenge because of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. European economies are also in serious difficulty. Saudi Arabia also has now reduced the production of oil and the relationship between the U.S and China is deteriorating. Many countries no longer believe in globalization. 

If our two parties in the U.S. can’t reach a consensus and continue      to increase the debt ceiling soon,  our country will be faced with very serious economic consequences.