2025 年终中外大事记

2025 年走到年终，国际局势的主旋律仍是「不确定」：战火延宕、贸易摩擦升温、AI 竞逐加速、极端气候更频繁地闯入日常。世界并未回到旧秩序，而是在多重压力下进入一种更碎片化的运行方式。 

在地缘政治与安全上，俄乌战争持续牵动欧洲安全与军援结构；中东冲突仍反覆出现停火与再度升级的循环；多个区域热点也显示「局部冲突易升高」的风险。这些事件共同拉高了能源、航运与全球供应链的不稳定性。 

在经济与贸易上，关税与產业政策回归成為大国竞争工具。金融时报的年终回顾形容，美国在 2025 年以更激进的关税手段重塑贸易格局，市场曾出现剧烈波动，并引发对通膨与成本转嫁的讨论。 

同时，IMF 的《世界经济展望》（2025 年 10 月）指出全球成长预期放缓：2024 年约 3.3%，2025 年约 3.2%，2026 年约 3.1%，反映全球经济在高摩擦环境中呈现「低速但勉强韧性」。 

在科技方面，生成式 AI 继续「从工具变成国力叙事」：算力、晶片、资料、监管与安全，逐步成為各国政策与企业投资的核心议题，既带来生產力想像，也引发就业、能耗与治理风险的辩论。 

在气候与灾害方面，极端高温、风暴、洪水与野火造成更高的经济损失。救灾与人道体系也在年终报告中提醒：2025 年多起重大气候灾害合计损失金额庞大，凸显「减碳」之外，「调适」与防灾投资已成為各国不得不做的功课。

2025 Year-End Review: Major Events at Home and Abroad 

As 2025 closed, the world did not return to a calmer “post-crisis” rhythm. Instead, it moved into a more fragmented and risk-heavy phase—marked by prolonged conflict, renewed trade frictions, accelerating AI competition, and more frequent climate extremes. The defining feature of the year was uncertainty: governments, markets, and societies repeatedly adjusted to shocks that arrived from multiple directions.

On the geopolitical and security front, the war in Ukraine continued to shape Europe’s security posture and defense spending, while the Middle East remained trapped in cycles of escalation, temporary pauses, and renewed tension. Beyond the headline conflicts, several regional flashpoints also reminded the world how quickly localized disputes can intensify—raising risks for energy supply, shipping routes, and global supply chains.

In trade and the global economy, tariffs and industrial policy became more central tools of great-power competition. As countries prioritized strategic industries and “economic security,” global trade felt less rule-based and more bloc-driven. Major institutions warned that global growth was likely to cool slightly compared with the previous year, reflecting higher friction costs, persistent inflation concerns in some regions, and uneven recovery across economies.

In technology, generative AI further shifted from a corporate race to a national priority. Computing power, advanced chips, data governance, and regulation increasingly became part of strategic planning. The promise of productivity gains grew, but so did debates over job displacement, energy demand, misinformation, and AI safety—turning innovation into both an opportunity and a governance challenge.

Finally, climate and disasters were impossible to ignore. Extreme heat, storms, floods, and wildfires carried heavy human and economic costs, pushing many governments to treat adaptation—resilient infrastructure, disaster preparedness, and insurance reform—not as a secondary agenda, but as a necessity alongside emissions reduction.

In sum, 2025’s key words were resilience and division. The global system held together, but under visible strain—and the real question for 2026 is not only who will compete harder, but who can build more reliable rules and safeguards so people can feel stability amid turbulence.