中东：伊朗战争阴影逼近

中东局势正被推向危险边缘。伊朗国内因经济与政治不满引发的抗议持续延烧，官方强力镇压之际，外界也观察到近乎全面的网路封锁；有报导指出，封网自 1/8 起使一般连线大幅降至极低水平，民间改以卫星网路勉强维持对外讯息。

同一时间，外部压力急速升温。白宫公开表示不排除对伊朗动用军事力量；美方也宣布对「与伊朗做生意的国家」加徵 25% 关税，把冲突从政治与安全延伸到经济战线。 以色列方面亦传出进入高度警戒，关注美国是否介入所引发的连锁反应。

战争往往不是从宣战开始，而是从误判开始。当街头对立加深、沟通管道收缩、威慑讯号不断叠加，「一触即发」就不再只是形容——而是整个区域必须共同避免的最坏结局。

Middle East: The Risk of an Iran War Is Rising Fast

Tensions around Iran are climbing toward a dangerous tipping point—not because anyone has formally chosen war, but because politics, protests, and military signaling are colliding at the same time.

Inside Iran, nationwide unrest has intensified after a sharp economic shock, with reports of a widening crackdown and mass arrests. Information has become harder to verify as Iran has imposed sweeping communications restrictions and internet blackouts, increasing fear and the odds of rumor-driven escalation. 

Outside Iran, Washington is raising the temperature. The White House has publicly signaled it is willing to consider military options, while President Donald Trump announced a new pressure move: a 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran.  Iran’s leadership, meanwhile, says it is “prepared for war” but also open to negotiations—language that can sound like deterrence at home yet read as provocation abroad. 

This is how wars become “one spark away”: a blackout that blinds the world, a crackdown that hardens anger, and external threats that narrow diplomatic exits. If backchannels fail and either side misreads the other’s next move, the region could slide from crisis into open conflict.